Blake Snell: A High-Stakes Gamble in Free Agency That Could Pay Off

• MLB
• Blake Snell

Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, is one of the most sought-after free agents in Major League Baseball (MLB). As the seventh pitcher in history to win Cy Young Awards in both leagues, Snell's prowess on the mound is undeniable. Notably, he became a free agent after winning a Cy Young, a feat accomplished by only eleven pitchers in the history of the sport.

Tory is four years younger than left-hander Randy Johnson when he signed with the D-backs and delivered some of the best pitching of his career. Snell's age is also on par with Max Scherzer when he signed with the Nationals and went on to help them clinch their first World Series in 2019.

"In baseball, there are only calculated risks and high-stakes gambles. Blake Snell is one such gamble; for many clubs, he's a risk worth taking."

Despite the risks, Snell is bound to attract a lucrative contract. His potential value is apparent when considering the recent signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto by the Dodgers for a whopping $325 million, despite Yamamoto not having pitched an inning in the Majors. Teams like the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees should be vying for Snell, given the clear need for strong starting pitching in their rosters.

Paying Big for Potential Rewards

Investing heavily in a starting pitcher has always been risky, a fact that has held since the dawn of free agency. However, the potential rewards can be significant. Some free-agent starters, like Greg Maddux and CC Sabathia, kept delivering outstanding performances, while others, like Pedro Martinez, faced injuries that stunted their careers.

Snell, however, stood out as a promising up-and-coming start with the Padres last season; he finished with a 14-9 record, struck out 234 batters in 180 innings, and made 32 starts. His ERA was an impressive 2.25, underlining his dominance on the mound.

Comparing Snell with the Best

Compared with the American League's Cy Young Award winner, Gerrit Cole, Snell's performance holds up. Cole made one more start and won one more game than Snell but had a slightly higher ERA and fewer strikeouts. Essentially, the two pitchers, both highly valued in baseball, had very similar seasons.

However, as Buck Showalter pointed out, predicting pitchers' future performance is never a certainty, regardless of their past achievements. Injuries, inconsistent performances, and unforeseen circumstances can derail the most promising careers.

The Risk-Reward Equation

The Yankees' signing of Carlos Rodón for nearly the same amount they signed Sabathia for exemplifies the risk-reward equation perfectly. While Sabathia led the Yankees to a World Series victory, Rodón's time with the team was marred by injuries, resulting in an underwhelming performance.

Yet, there are also success stories like Nathan Eovaldi, who signed with the Rangers and helped them win a World Series despite having undergone Tommy John surgery twice. Similarly, Snell has bounced back from arthroscopic surgery on his pitching elbow four years ago to become the best pitcher in his league.

As it stands, Blake Snell remains available in free agency. Clubs should be keen to acquire him, given his track record and significant upside. His potential to bolster a team's starting rotation and steer them toward success makes him a forward-stakes gamble that could pay off well.